NEW: Housing Solutions for Climate and Equity

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I.     Objective

This project will identify a range of actions, tools, strategies, and resources needed to move California from current projections of housing growth patterns to an ideal future scenario that would achieve the state’s housing production, climate, and equity objectives in a coordinated fashion.

II.     Background

California faces a severe housing crisis. To adequately house all Californians today and accommodate projected future growth, the pace of housing production will require dramatically accelerating technological and policy solutions to overcome historical trends and build on past and current progress.

Current “business as usual” projections indicate that California is not on pace to deliver the needed housing supply. Additionally, current development patterns do not adequately align with State climate goals, including reduction of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and conservation of natural and working lands. Additionally, changes in development patterns are needed to achieve Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing goals.

In 2022-2023, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) funded a contract, currently underway, that will create various hypothetical future housing growth scenarios using modeling software, and analyze these scenarios based on metrics of housing production and affordability, climate, fair housing, and other policy objectives. One scenario will project business-as-usual housing growth based on recent growth trends. Others will project housing growth patterns and outcomes based on emphasis on different policy objective priorities – for instance, growth that prioritizes low-VMT outcomes, growth that prioritizes housing unit production numbers, growth that prioritizes fair housing objectives, etc. The contractors will then create an ideal, “balanced” scenario that represents a balanced approach to achieving multiple policy objectives in a coordinated fashion.

The project proposed in this solicitation will build upon this prior work. Looking at the delta between business-as-usual and the “balanced” scenario developed in the previous contract, this project will identify the policies, tools, and resources needed to achieve the “balanced” scenario. Additionally, the project will explore the trade-offs associated with the specific strategies that are investigated – i.e. the pros and cons of each specific potential action.

III.     Scope of Work

There are three main deliverables of this project.

First, the selected contractor (Contractor) will develop a Strategies Report which will identify a broad range of housing strategies – including policies, planning and financing tools, financial and regulatory resources, and others – that could be utilized to shift the pace and patterns of California’s existing housing growth and achieve the “balanced” future scenario. Research for this report will involve a literature review and stakeholder interviews.

Second, Contractor will develop a Modeling Analysis. This will entail utilizing geospatial and financial modeling techniques to analyze and estimate the potential impacts of various combinations of the strategies identified in the Strategies Report, and identify a toolkit of strategies that would likely achieve the “balanced” future scenario.

Third, Contractor will develop Communications Products to communicate the results of the study to a range of audiences and expand fact-based understanding of the need for the recommended strategies. Potential target audiences may include State agency leadership and staff, legislators, and local and regional government officials, all of whom may be necessary partners in implementing the recommended actions.

Note that all task timelines outlined below may be subject to change within the overall contract period.

Virtual Communications & Correspondence

All meetings, calls, and other correspondence referenced in this scope of work shall be assumed to take place virtually via phone or videoconference, as appropriate, unless otherwise arranged and mutually agreeable to all involved parties. Calls and videoconferences shall be arranged by Contractor using Contractor’s choice of meeting platform that is accessible to CARB staff and may be recorded at the discretion of CARB Project Manager.

All deliverables shall be in digital format only. Final deliverables shall be in accordance with State accessibility requirements for public documents (e.g., see: https://www.ca.gov/accessibility/) and meet technical specifications for compatibility with CARB’s web hosting infrastructure.

External Partners and Coordination

Project Manager shall coordinate input from and collaboration with a range of partners as determined by CARB, which may include other State agency representatives as well as non-State stakeholders.

Task 1 – Meetings (About 5% Contractor Time)

Deliverables and Timeline:

  • Months 1-18:
    • Kickoff Meetings: Schedule, set up, host, and attend up to three project kick-off and discovery meetings to confirm understanding of the scope of work and timeline with CARB, and other partners as determined by CARB Project Manager (PM). Send PM a summary of takeaways and next steps.
    • Regular check-in Meetings: Schedule, set up, host, and attend recurring 1-hour project meetings every other week, at a time mutually agreeable to PM and Contractor, including Contractor and PM (and others as determined by PM).
    • Quarterly progress reports and meetings: These may be in lieu of the weekly check-in meeting above but include additional participants as determined by PM.
  • Months 12-18:
    • Schedule, set up, host, and present up to three presentations of findings for CARB and other partners, at times and dates mutually agreeable to PM and Contractor.

Task 2 – Strategies Report (About 30% Contractor Time)

Contractor will develop a Strategies Report identifying a range of strategies that could help to achieve the “balanced” scenario. Sources of information for this report must include but are not limited to:

  • Review of existing State-sponsored literature and reports on this topic, including CARB’s 2022 AB 32 Climate Change Scoping Plan, CARB’s Progress Report to the Legislature on Sustainable Communities Implementation (aka SB 150 report), California’s Statewide Housing Plan, and others as identified by PM.
  • Review of white and grey literature.
  • Review of existing state mandates that incentivize development and investment in specific locations/geographies (for example, CEQA streamlining provisions, Disadvantaged Communities and Climate Investment funds, Tax Credit Allocation Committee (TCAC) opportunity areas, etc.).
  • A minimum of 25 individual interviews with practitioners and industry stakeholders and experts, including but not limited to local planners, Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) staff, state agency staff, community groups and community representatives, and industry stakeholders. Interviewees shall be compensated for their time if representing a nonprofit or community-based organization (i.e., not being interviewed as part of another paid job).
  • An implementation framework for action, including specific and actionable options and recommendations for State actions to implement strategies that are expected to have a meaningful and measurable impact in achieving State housing, climate, and equity goals. The report shall address the following:
    • What strategies would be most impactful in advancing State housing, climate, and equity goals? How can these strategies be implemented? Give practical, actionable, and specific details.
    • Who (e.g., State department/agency, local governments, other partners/stakeholders) needs to act to implement the strategy? What specific actions are needed?
      • Specify which actions pertain to State government, which pertain to local government, which pertain to private-sector partners, and others as appropriate.
    • What is the anticipated timeline for implementing the recommended actions?
    • Who are the primary stakeholders? What are the anticipated political challenges? How can these be mitigated?
    • What is the anticipated fiscal cost? Where should these funds come from?
    • What changes to State law, regulations, or policies would be needed? Provide specific language or examples.
    • What new programs, policies, or resources are needed at the State level? Who and what specifically is needed to implement them?
    • What are the tradeoffs/pros and cons/potential risks and rewards of each strategy?
    • What specific actions need to be taken to ensure that implementation of the recommended strategies maximizes racial equity and expands opportunity for low-income communities and communities of color?

Deliverables and Timeline:

  • Interviews
    • Week 3: Draft List of Interviewees submitted to PM
    • Week 5: PM will provide input
    • Week 7: FinalList of Interviewees (may be subject to change, with PM approval, as the project dictates in subsequent weeks), incorporating PM input
    • Weeks 7-12: Interviews. Conduct individual interviews with all interviewees.
  • Literature Review
    • Week 3: Proposed List of Sources to be included in literature review
    • Week 5: PM will provide input no later than one week following submittal
    • Week 7: Final List of Sources to be included in literature review, incorporating PM input
    • Week 10: Draft Literature Review, up to 20 pages
    • Week 13: PM will provide input
    • Week 18: Final Literature Review, up to 20 pages, incorporating PM input
  • Strategies Report
    • Week 1-18: Draft Strategies Report
      • 15-30 pages, not including references and appendices
      • Defines potential strategies, discusses pros and cons of each strategy, and identifies implementation steps needed – e.g., funding, legislation, administrative actions, etc.
      • Appendix of key findings from interviews, 1-3 pages per interview, including name and title of all interviewees
    • Week 22: PM will provide input on Draft Strategies Report
    • Week 25: Final Strategies Report
      • 20-40 pages, not including references and appendices, incorporating PM input

Task 3 – Modeling Analysis (About 50% Contractor Time)

Contractor will model the potential impacts of the strategies identified in the Strategies Report and identify strategies needed to achieve a “balanced” scenario. This modeling will assess what strategies are needed to achieve the targets and goals of the “balanced” scenario, and estimate a potential range of impact for each strategy. Modeling shall include, for each individual strategy and for the combined set of recommended strategies in total:

  • Financial impact: Cost to the State. What is the specific estimated cost of implementation?
  • Economic impact: Economic benefits and multiplier effects. Quantify estimated economic impact or return on investment that could be anticipated.
  • Housing production impact: To what degree would the strategy increase housing production? If relevant, what geographies (including but not limited to priority development areas and transit priority areas as identified in Sustainable Communities Strategies) would be most impacted?
  • VMT and GHG reduction impact. What are the quantifiable anticipated emissions reduction benefits of each strategy?

Deliverables and Timeline:

  • Proposed Modeling Approach
    • Week 22: Draft Proposed Modeling Approach
      • 8-15 pages not including references and appendices
      • Outlines proposed methods for completing the modeling analysis
    • Week 26: PM will provide input
    • Week 28: Final Proposed Modeling Approach
      • 10-30 pages not including references and appendices, incorporating PM input
  • Modeling Report
    • Week 40: Draft Modeling Report
      • 10-30 pages not including references and appendices
      • Must include a narrative summary of modeling methodology as outlined in the Final Proposed Modeling Approach, with technical detail in an accompanying appendix
    • Week 44: PM will provide input
    • Week 50: Final Modeling Report
      • 15-40 pages not including references and appendices, incorporating PM input

Task 4 – Communications Products (About 15% Contractor Time)

Drawing on the results of Tasks 2 and 3, Contractor will develop communications materials for a range of stakeholder audiences communicating the case for up to 10 strategies. These materials will be used by a range of stakeholders to educate public and private-sector actors on why certain strategies are needed, their potential benefits, and what it would take to implement them. Additionally, these materials are intended to help local and regional actors better understand and implement strategies at the local level that could complement State actions. The specific strategies that will be the subject of these materials will be determined during project development. Communications materials might include, for instance, 1-2 page summaries of a specific program or policy that communicate the need for and benefits of a proposed action. These materials are intended to help communicate the recommended strategies to key audiences and stakeholders who are needed to help implement them.

Deliverables and Timeline:

IV. Deliverables

The project pre-proposal must include but is not limited to the following deliverables:

During Active Contract Period

  1. Work with CARB staff at the beginning of the project to create a 1-page plain-language outreach deliverable for the public describing the project’s goals, process, and planned deliverables (available in multiple languages, template will be provided).
  2. Kickoff Meetings
  3. Regular Check-in Meetings
  4. Quarterly Progress Reports including public-facing updates to be posted to CARB’s website.
  5. Quarterly Progress Meetings
  6. Informal monthly progress update meetings with CARB contract manager (if applicable)

Prior to Contract Close

  1. Draft List of Interviewees
  2. Final List of Interviewees
  3. A minimum of 25 individual interviews with practitioners and industry stakeholders
  4. Proposed List of Sources
  5. Final List of Sources
  6. Draft Literature Review
  7. Final Literature Review
  8. Draft Strategies Report
  9. Final Strategies Report
  10. Draft Proposed Modeling Approach
  11. Final Proposed Modeling Approach
  12. Draft Modeling Report
  13. Final Modeling Report
  14. Draft Communications Products
  15. Final Communications Products
  16. Presentation summarizing findings at seminar or public meeting(s) (if applicable)

NOTE: contractor will be responsible for ensuring their documents comply with the American with Disabilities Act.

Additional deliverables to be determined in consultation with CARB staff.

V. Timeline

It is anticipated this project will be completed in 18 months from the start date (start date is estimated to be in Spring 2024). The estimated budget for this project is up to $500,000.

Scoring Criteria

1. Responsiveness to the goals and objectives outlined in the proposal solicitation (20 points)

The proposal should explain—in adequate detail and clear, understandable language—how the proposed project satisfies the project objectives.

2. Work experience and subject matter expertise (20 points)

The proposal should demonstrate that the proposers have the work experience or subject matter expertise required to successfully carry out the proposed project as described. Additionally, the proposal should describe how the project will build upon previous relevant work that was funded by CARB, other regional, state, and federal agencies.

3. Expanding expertise (10 points)

The proposal should explain how the project team expands expertise such as by incorporating multidisciplinary expertise or perspectives, including members from various public universities, non-academic institutions, or community-based organizations, or providing opportunities to build skills and expertise for individuals from underrepresented groups. Reviewers will consider if key personnel contributing significantly to the project (i.e., a principal investigator, co-principal investigator or co-investigator, contributing 25 percent or more of their time to the project) have not worked with CARB in the past five years.

4. Explanation of technical or methodological approach (20 points)

The proposal should clearly explain the logic and feasibility of the project’s methodology, spell out the sequence and relationships of major tasks, and explain methods for performing the work. The proposal should include a clear description and plan for how each task will be completed.  

5. Level and quality of effort and cost-effectiveness (15 points)

The proposal should describe how time and resources will be allocated and demonstrate how this allocation ensures the project’s success. Proposal reviewers will evaluate, for example: if the objectives of the project can be met given this allocation, if there is adequate supervision and oversight to ensure that the project will remain on schedule, if time and cost are appropriately divvied up across different project tasks and stages.