California Air Resources Board

SACRAMENTO – The California Air Resources Board released an updated economic analysis today that forecasts robust economic growth as the state continues implementing AB 32, focusing primarily on energy efficiency and fuel diversification measures.

“This analysis confirms what economists have been saying all along: that full implementation of the Scoping Plan is the right choice for California to make an affordable transition to a clean energy economy,” said ARB Chairman Mary D. Nichols. “It supports continued economic growth and sets us on a course for greater energy security and less dependence on petroleum.”

The analysis shows the following key findings:

• Fuel expenditures drop by 4.9 percent in 2020, with a total cost savings of $3.8 billion in reduced consumption of gasoline and diesel, as a result of increased investment in energy efficiency and cleaner fuels.
• Two million jobs will be created by 2020, the result of a sustained growth in labor demand of .9 percent each year, which is consistent with the business-as-usual case.
• The economy, including personal income, will continue to grow at a rate of 2.4 percent per year.
• Offsets in a cap-and-trade program help to reduce costs.
• Divergence from the AB 32 Scoping Plan (i.e. limiting requirements for oil companies or utilities), increases costs and shifts them to Californians and small businesses.

The updated economic analysis was carefully reviewed by the 16-member Economic and Allocation Advisory Committee (EAAC), an independent panel of policy, business and economic experts established last May. The EAAC advised ARB staff during the analysis and also contributed its own peer review of the analysis which appears as an appendix to the final report.

Economic analyses are conducted to show the impacts of making different policy choices in order to identify possible risks and to provide insights into which aspects of the program are most cost-effective.

For more information on the EAAC, go to www.climatechange.ca.gov/eaac/index.html.

On Thursday, March 25, 2010 members of the ARB will hear presentations from staff and the EAAC on the updated economic analysis. In April, ARB will hold a public meeting that will allow interested parties to participate in a panel discussion of ARB’s and other economic analyses of AB 32 implementation.