California Air Resources Board

I. Objective

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is responsible for developing quantification methodologies (QM) for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and other benefits from projects funded by the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF). The purpose of this study is to develop a QM and Excel-based calculator tool for estimating GHG emission reductions and co-benefits of residential building decarbonization projects, including energy efficiency and appliance electrification. Co-benefits include but are not limited to energy savings, energy and fuel cost savings, and criteria and toxic air pollutant emission reductions.

II. Background

Under California’s Cap-and-Trade program, the State’s portion of the proceeds from Cap-and-Trade auctions are deposited into the GGRF. The Legislature and Governor enact budget appropriations from the GGRF for State agencies to invest in projects that help achieve the State’s climate goals. These investments are collectively called California Climate Investments. Senate Bill 862 (Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review, Chapter 36, Statutes of 2014) requires CARB to develop guidance on reporting and quantification methods for all State agencies that receive appropriations from the GGRF. Guidance includes developing QMs for estimating GHG emission reductions and other social, economic, and environmental benefits of projects, referred to as “co-benefits.”

The Legislature has appropriated over $700 million from the GGRF to residential building decarbonization programs such as the Department of Community Services and Development’s Low-Income Weatherization Program (LIWP), the California Energy Commission’s Equitable Building Decarbonization Program, and the California Public Utilities Commission’s Technology and Equipment for Clean Heating (TECH) Initiative. With growing funding for various residential building decarbonization programs, there is a great need to establish a comprehensive methodology to more efficiently and consistently estimate the benefits of the projects funded by these programs via a publicly accessible QM and Excel-based calculator tool.

CARB previously developed a QM and calculator tool for the LIWP project activities, available on the CCI Quantification, Benefits, and Reporting Materials webpage. The LIWP QM relies on users to estimate project-specific energy savings using CARB-specified deemed measures or by performing energy audits. Deemed measures are obtained from the California electronic Technical Reference Manual (eTRM), or other ex-ante (prospective) project estimate data sources if needed. Ex-post energy savings estimates may also be utilized in the current QM using energy audit software for energy efficiency projects that do not have statewide deemed measures, or to produce more accurate estimates of energy savings. The current approach for ex-ante project estimates requires extensive data handling that may result in inconsistencies in energy savings estimates across projects. The LIWP calculator tool requires input of a quantification period for the useful life of the installed equipment, and the estimated annual energy savings in kilowatt hours per year. The flexibility of this approach has the limitation of a lack of documentation of the specific inputs utilized to obtain the energy savings estimates from the deemed measures. The Equitable Building Decarbonization Program and TECH Initiative do not currently have QMs to estimate project benefits.

The purpose of this study is to synthesize information from empirical literature and other credible resources to devise and/or improve existing methods to quantify the benefits of residential building decarbonization projects, including energy efficiency and appliance electrification. The QM developed through this contract will be used to estimate the benefits of projects funded by LIWP, the Equitable Building Decarbonization Program, the TECH Initiative, and any future GGRF-funded residential building decarbonization programs with similar project types.

III. Scope of Work

The outcomes from this study will include a literature review, a QM to estimate the quantifiable benefits of residential building decarbonization projects, and an Excel-based calculator tool that operationalizes the proposed QM in a manner that is accessible for a range of users. It will also include a final technical report describing the justification for the chosen QM based on the literature review, the process and challenges of data collection, any limitations of the QM, and a user guide for updating the calculator tool. The final QM and calculator tool will be provided to CARB staff and may be posted publicly by CARB or referenced in public CARB documents.

Task 1 - Literature Review

The Contractor shall conduct a literature review to systematically identify and assess existing methodologies that quantify the GHG emission reductions and co-benefits of residential building decarbonization projects, with a focus on energy savings standards and models. In coordination with CARB staff, and any administering agency staff identified by CARB, the Contractor will identify residential building decarbonization project activities relevant to California Climate Investment programs for the literature review. Project activities may include but are not limited to energy efficiency measures, and installation of electric heat pump HVAC systems, electric heat pump water heaters, induction range or cooktops, and electric clothes dryers in single-family homes, manufactured/mobile homes, and multifamily properties.

The literature review shall include methods developed by CARB and other California State agencies, as well as the methods recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy. The literature review shall include a recommended approach for developing the residential building decarbonization QM. The approach for quantifying the benefits of space and water heaters must be in alignment with the quantification methodology developed for CARB’s potential zero-emission space and water heater standards regulation.

Task 2 - Quantification Methodology Development and Data Collection

Based on the literature review and other research, the Contractor will develop a QM for estimating GHG emission reductions and co-benefits of residential building decarbonization projects. Specifically, the QM will focus on developing a simplified and more consistent approach to estimate ex-ante energy savings estimates resulting from select project activities (including energy efficiency projects and appliance electrification). The QM should estimate energy savings specific to all relevant project activities and should account for the variation of estimated impacts across various regions of the state. The QM should also specify deemed measures (pre-determined energy savings) for each eligible project activity and specify additional criteria for accurately obtaining predicted energy savings of the specific project activity (e.g., climate zone, building type, building vintage, equipment specifications, technology efficiencies, usage patterns, other exogenous factors on electricity energy consumption). The approach for quantifying the benefits of space and water heaters must be in alignment with the quantification methodology developed for CARB’s potential zero-emission space and water heater standards regulation.

The Contractor will identify and provide CARB staff with any supporting data for the variables necessary to calculate energy savings according to the QM. Data may come from a variety of sources and must be publicly accessible. All variables necessary to calculate energy savings accurately in various regions of the state should be clearly documented. The QM will also include a technical background to support findings and a complete bibliography. The Contractor shall meet with CARB staff, and other State agency staff identified by CARB, to understand the applicable California Climate Investments programs to ensure the proposed QM uses inputs that are feasible for program administrators to collect. The Contractor will revise the draft QM based on feedback from CARB staff, and other State agency staff identified by CARB, via an iterative process.

Task 3 - Excel-based Calculator Tool Development

The Contractor will develop a user-friendly Excel-based calculator tool, based on the QM developed in Task 2, that will be primarily used by program applicants and agencies administering GGRF-funded residential building decarbonization programs to easily estimate the projected energy impacts that result from their projects. The Contractor will develop the calculations and build a database of all necessary input variables to operationalize the QM. The calculator tool will also use CARB emission factors to calculate the GHG and air pollutant emission reductions associated with the estimated energy savings of a project activity.

The calculator tool must facilitate selection of input variables including, but not limited to, climate zone, building type, building vintage, and equipment specifications, and it must incorporate the calculations from deemed measures (pre-determined energy savings). The calculator tool must also allow for batch inputs of large numbers of projects to accommodate estimating project benefits from residential building decarbonization programs that are implemented statewide and reported by census tract. The calculator tool must be designed for and made available for CARB staff to manage and update once this contract is complete. The specific inputs and interface of this tool will be developed through conversations with CARB staff, and any administering agency staff identified by CARB, throughout the duration of the project. The Contractor will revise the draft calculator tool based on feedback from CARB staff, and other State agency staff identified by CARB, via an iterative process. The Contractor must provide CARB staff with any data used to develop the calculator tool.

Task 4 - Technical Report

The Contractor will develop a final technical report detailing the process for developing the QM. The technical report will include the following:

• Findings from the literature review;
• Supporting reasoning for the methods chosen;
• Detailed description of the methods and sources from which the QM was derived, as well as their limitations;
• Description of the process for collecting and using the data to develop the QM;
• Discussion of any important knowledge gaps;
• A user guide for updating the calculator tool; and
• A complete bibliography.

The Contractor will revise the draft technical report based on feedback from CARB staff, and any administering agency staff identified by CARB, via an iterative process.

IV. Deliverables

The project pre-proposal must include but is not limited to the following deliverables:

During Active Contract Period

• Work with CARB staff at the beginning of the project to create a 1-page plain-language outreach deliverable for the public describing the project’s goals, process, and planned deliverables (available in multiple languages, template will be provided).
• Quarterly Progress Reports including public-facing updates to be posted to CARB’s website. Contractor will present the tool development to CARB staff in progress reports.
• Quarterly Progress Meetings with CARB staff and other relevant State agency staff. Contractor will present the tool development in progress meetings.
• Informal monthly progress update meetings with CARB contract manager.

Prior to Contract Close

• Draft Literature Review “Residential Building Decarbonization Quantification Methodology Literature Review”
• Draft Quantification Methodology “Residential Building Decarbonization Quantification Methodology
• Final Quantification Methodology “Residential Building Decarbonization Quantification Methodology”
• Draft calculator tool “Benefits Calculator Tool for Residential Building Decarbonization Projects”
• Final calculator tool “Benefits Calculator Tool for Residential Building Decarbonization Projects”
• Draft technical report “Technical Report: Quantification Methodology for Estimating the Benefits of Residential Building Decarbonization Projects”
• Final technical report “Technical Report: Quantification Methodology for Estimating the Benefits of Residential Building Decarbonization Projects”
• Presentation summarizing findings at a CARB seminar or public meeting(s)

NOTE: Contractor will be responsible for ensuring their documents comply with the accessibility standards inWeb Content Accessibility Guidelines 2.0 or subsequent version.

Additional deliverables to be determined in consultation with CARB staff.

V. Timeline

It is anticipated this project will be completed in 9 months from the start date (start date is estimated to be in Spring 2025). The estimated budget for this project is up to $200,000.

Scoring Criteria

1. RESPONSIVENESS TO THE GOALS AND OBJECTIVES OUTLINED IN THE PROPOSAL SOLICITATION (20 POINTS)

The proposal should explain—in adequate detail and clear, understandable language—how the proposed project satisfies the project objectives. This contract should develop a QM and calculator tool that estimates prospective energy savings in order to quantify the GHG emission reductions and co-benefits of residential building decarbonization projects.

2. WORK EXPERIENCE AND SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTISE (20 POINTS)

The proposal should demonstrate that the proposers have the work experience or subject matter expertise required to successfully carry out the proposed project as described. Additionally, the proposal should describe how the project will build upon previous relevant work that was funded by CARB or other regional, state, and federal agencies. The proposers should have knowledge of clean energy equipment specifications and experience calculating project activity-specific energy savings. The proposers should also have experience building user interfaces using large databases.

3. EXPANDING EXPERTISE (20 POINTS)

The proposal should explain how the project team expands expertise such as by incorporating multidisciplinary expertise or perspectives, including members from various public universities, non-academic institutions, or community-based organizations, or providing opportunities to build skills and expertise for individuals from underrepresented groups. Reviewers will consider if key personnel contributing significantly to the project (i.e., a principal investigator, co-principal investigator or co-investigator, contributing 25 percent or more of their time to the project) have not worked with CARB in the past five years.

4. EXPLANATION OF TECHNICAL OR METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH (20 POINTS)

The proposal should clearly explain the logic and feasibility of the project’s methodology, spell out the sequence and relationships of major tasks, and explain methods for performing the work. The proposal should include a clear description and plan for how each task will be completed and how the proposer will approach collecting the necessary data for QM and calculator tool development.

5. LEVEL AND QUALITY OF EFFORT AND COST EFFECTIVENESS (20 POINTS)

The proposal should describe how time and resources will be allocated and demonstrate how this allocation ensures the project’s success. Proposal reviewers will evaluate, for example: if the objectives of the project can be met given this allocation, if there is adequate supervision and oversight to ensure that the project will remain on schedule, if time and cost are appropriately divvied up across different project tasks and stages.