California Air Resources Board

California’s zero emission vehicle (ZEV) regulation is a credit-based percentage requirement intended to balance vehicle sales with the type of vehicle technology being produced.  The regulation itself does not specify a vehicle sales volume target.  Staff developed a ZEV Calculator for model years 2018-2025 to help answer the question of how many vehicles could result from the regulation, and help show the potential effect various flexibilities and developing technology has on the overall number of vehicles produced.

During the ZEV midterm review (MTR) process, staff was in contact with all of the auto manufacturers subject to this regulation to assess the status of technology through their product plans. Information collected during this process was then used to develop minimum compliance scenarios which emphasize the main function of the ZEV regulation: to set a floor to ensure pure ZEV technology is being produced to help the technology reach commercialization. 

The question that these scenarios answer is how much could be expected, at a minimum, from the ZEV regulation in any given model year.  Minimum compliance scenarios are typically used by CARB to determine the cost for auto manufacturers to meet regulatory requirements and are combined with projected emission benefits to determine the cost-effectiveness of the requirements.  These scenarios are not a market forecast of what actual total sales may be, or will likely be, in any given model year, but are rather regulatory compliance projections using the best available information at the time of this review.

2017 ZEV Calculator Tool
An Excel spreadsheet that can be used to compare various compliance scenarios simultaneously. The spreadsheet is pre-populated with the assumptions used to generate the scenarios described in Appendix A of the Midterm Review Report.

2012 ZEV Calculator Tool (available by request)
An Excel spreadsheet first developed for the 2012 ZEV rulemaking.

ZEV Tutorial for Model Years 2018+
Provides a detailed walk-through of California’s ZEV regulation requirements for 2018 and subsequent model year vehicles.

California's Advanced Clean Cars Midterm Review Final Report 
Review of the greenhouse gas (GHG) 2022 through 2025 standards, particulate matter (PM) standards and ZEV regulation.