Assessing Barriers to Clean Space and Water Heater Adoption and Strategies to Overcome Them

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Background

Direct pollution from space and water heating is responsible for approximately 10% of greenhouse gas (GHG) and 5% of smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in California. Setting GHG-emission standards for new space and water heaters sold in California would reduce pollution that causes climate change. In addition, increased zero-emission space and water heater adoption would lower harmful air pollution caused by nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), and other toxic chemicals, which would help California meet state and federal air quality standards and help protect public health. CARB is developing potential standards for reducing GHG emissions from new space and water heaters sold in California as part of the state’s clean air plan.[1]

Successful implementation of the Clean Space and Water Heater Standards ultimately relies on whether consumers are aware of zero-emission space and water heater technologies and if they are willing to purchase this equipment. Although studies explore consumer attitudes, data gaps exist. A 2023 “California Zero-Emission Appliance Awareness Study” explores the attitudes of builders, landlords, homeowners, and renters towards electric appliances across multiple end uses including space and water heating. However, updated research is needed in this space. The 2026 California Market Transformation Administrator (CalMTA) “Residential Heat Pump Water Heating Market Characterization Report” describes more recent consumer awareness of heat pump water heaters in the context of the CalMTA Residential HPWH Market Transformation Initiative (MTI) Plan. However, further research is needed on current consumer attitudes towards zero-emission space heating specifically in the context of implementing CARB’s Clean Space and Water Heater Standards. Research on consumer attitudes in the commercial setting are also needed given the 7.5 billion square feet of existing commercial buildings in California.[2]

In addition, knowledgeable contractors and installers must be available. Through listening sessions with communities across California, CARB heard about a potential shortage of contractors and installers in parts of the state that are knowledgeable on zero-emission equipment and how to install them. While studies such as Opinion Dynamics’ 2024 CPUC-funded study on the heat pump water heater contractor landscape exists, updated analysis of the scope and geographic location of this issue and the specific education required are needed. Data gaps remain in the zero-emission space heating side as well. The contractor landscape for space and water heating in commercial buildings is also different from the residential sector.[3] Commercial contractor attitudes and educational needs are another data gap to be filled.

Finally, the market status of zero-emission space and water heaters must be understood. This includes the cost and availability of zero-emission equipment, and equipment-specific issues that may cause manufacturing delays, or delays in the supply of zero-emission equipment. The status of the zero-emission space and water heater equipment market evolves over time, and up to date information is necessary. While the recent 2026 CalMTA study analyzes the market for heat pump water heaters, information is needed for other zero-emission technologies for water heating and space heating.

The purpose of this study is to quantify and understand these factors to serve as a benchmark for measuring the successful implementation of a clean space and water standard and addressing any potential barriers to its implementation.

Objective

The Contractor will characterize consumer and contractor awareness, acceptance and satisfaction of zero-emission equipment, as well as the current market status of that equipment, to provide empirical grounding for developing and implementing building decarbonization policies and programs that help California meet its long-term climate and air quality goals. The study will collect new data on these topics focusing on space and water heaters used in existing residential and non-residential buildings. It will provide recommendations to inform policy and program design and implementation to improve access to and accelerate the pace of zero-emission space and water heater uptake. To that end, the objectives of this study are to address two or more of the following:

1.      Assess consumer awareness, acceptance, and satisfaction with zero-emission space and water heating technologies: This includes evaluating awareness and acceptance levels among California tenants, landlords, and homeowners across residential and non-residential buildings. Assess satisfaction among individuals and organizations that have already installed zero-emission equipment, including their experience with the procurement and installation processes. All findings should be stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics, with a particular focus on low-income and disadvantaged communities.

2.      Workforce status: Evaluate contractor and installer awareness, acceptance, and satisfaction with zero-emission technologies. Assess the availability, capacity, and training needs of the skilled workforce responsible for installing zero-emission space and water heaters in residential and non-residential buildings. Characterize skilled contractor and installer availability by geography. Identify existing workforce development programs that support zero-emission space and water heater installation and assess gaps. Examine labor costs, job quality, job access, and workforce training opportunities and barriers.

3.      Market status: Assess current and projected availability and cost of zero-emission space and water heating equipment by equipment type, in particular air-to-water heat pumps, variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems, and central heat pump water heaters. Identify factors that may play into potential supply chain disruptions for residential and non-residential equipment markets, including equipment-specific constraints that may lead to manufacturing delays or delays in the supply chain between purchase and having the equipment ready for installation. Evaluate how these delays vary by equipment type and capacity.

Scope of Work

Task 1: Literature Review

Conduct a literature review on existing and ongoing research on criteria identified in the objective as it applies to the implementation of the Clean Space and Water Heater Standards. Topics include consumer and contractor awareness, acceptance, and satisfaction, and workforce and market status. The Contractor shall develop a California-specific discussion of potential barriers and solutions building upon existing state agency analyses and available data and research such as:

·         2026 CalMTA “Residential Heat Pump Water Heating Market Characterization Report.”

·         2024 BW Research Partnership “Workforce Challenges for Zero NOx Requirements - Implementation Working Group Research.”

·         Southern California Edison’s 2023 “California Zero-Emission Appliance Awareness Study”

·         2024 Opinion Dynamics “California Water Heating Market Study.”

Interim Deliverable

Completed literature review.

Task 2: Pre-Analysis Plan

At Pre-Proposal Stage

The proposer will describe a data collection methodology and analysis plan that is responsive to the objectives of this study.

At Proposal Stage

The selected proposer will further develop the data collection methodology and analysis plan outlined at the pre-proposal stage. 

At Contract Stage

The Contractor will finalize a detailed data collection method described in the pre-proposal and proposal stage to be responsive to the objectives, including an explanation as to why the method proposed is the best method to reach the desired populations and what statistical and other methods will be utilized to analyze the data. The Contractor will submit a pre-analysis plan (PAP), which includes specific analysis plans and a power analysis, to CARB prior to data collection and analysis. Data collection can include methods such as case studies or focus groups, among others.

Interim Deliverable

The Contractor will submit a pre-analysis plan (PAP), which includes specific data collection and analysis plans and a power analysis, to CARB prior to data collection and analysis.

Task 3: Data Collection and Analysis

This task will carry out the data collection and analysis described in the Task 2 pre-analysis plan to fill data gaps found in the Task 1 literature review related to consumer and contractor awareness, acceptance and satisfaction and workforce and market status of zero-emission space and water heaters.

This task could utilize interviews, focus groups, surveys, in-depth case studies or other methods and can be supplemented with existing data. The Contractor shall consider how the attributes described in the objectives vary geographically and/or by building type and consumer class to understand potential barriers and solutions to accelerate zero-emission space and water heater uptake.

Interim Deliverable

Preliminary summary of main results from data collection.

Task 4: Outreach Materials

The focus of this task is to develop multilingual materials working closely with CARB staff that could be used in future outreach campaigns based on the results from task 1-3. This could include testimonials, informational materials, and infographics based on data obtained through interviews, surveys, focus groups, etc., and/or summaries of specific case studies. The Contractor shall use language that is accessible and culturally relevant and translate materials into Spanish and potentially other languages.

Interim Deliverable

At least five different informational materials that can be used for outreach.

Task 5: Policy Analysis and Recommendations

The Contractor shall integrate the findings from Task 3 to develop a detailed discussion of the most effective strategies, program, and incentive designs for increasing the adoption of zero-emission space and water heating in existing residential and non-residential buildings.

The Contractor shall, where appropriate, discuss potential policy changes and reform pathways, including insights from other building decarbonization initiatives. This analysis should highlight readily-solvable issues through current policy and program development channels; issues that require broader funding support and/or federal action; and those issues that are challenging to reliably address through program and policy design.

Interim Deliverable

Detailed policy analysis and recommendations are to be included in the final report.

Task 6: Reports

The project will conclude with the preparation of a final report. The final report will document all methodologies, data analysis, and processes employed in the completion of the research and results, and include a plain-language summary of policy recommendations. The Contractor shall provide data collected in this study to CARB in accordance with Institutional Review Board (IRB) guidelines.

Project Deliverables

The project proposal shall include but not be limited to the following deliverables:

At the Pre-Proposal Stage

  • If applicable, provide a cultural humility statement in the pre-proposal.
  • If applicable, provide a community engagement plan in the pre-proposal.
  • The contractor shall provide a description of data collection methodology and analysis plan

At the Beginning of the Contract

  • All Contractor personnel must undergo cultural humility training (e.g., implicit bias training and racial equity training). Training should be completed or scheduled within 30 days of contract execution.

During the Active Contract Period

  • The Contractor must submit Quarterly Progress Reports. These reports shall include plain-language summaries that can be posted publicly. CARB will provide the progress report template.
  • The Contractor shall engage in frequent (e.g., monthly) consultation calls with CARB and key interested parties.
  • For community engagement efforts, the contractor must collaborate with CARB staff to co-create meeting materials, including presentation slides, flyers, prompts, and speaking notes. The contractor must also ensure that CARB policies are accurately represented to the public. CARB participation in community meetings is preferred, provided that CARB’s presence does not negatively impact community engagement efforts.
  • The contractor shall submit Interim reports to keep CARB staff informed. These reports are expected at the end of each task, upon CARB staff’s request, to ensure that progress is being made.
  • Final pre-analysis plan.

Prior to Contract Close

  • The contractor shall submit all data, analyses, and analytical tools generated during this project.
  • The contractor shall satisfy the following requirements of the Draft Final Report (DFR):
    • DFR will be copy-edited, reviewed, and approved by the Principal Investigator.
    • Include a plain language summary in DFR
    • Include an equity implications section in DFR
    • If applicable, have the DFR reviewed by community representatives.
  • The contractor must work with CARB to create plain-language outreach deliverables for the public, summarizing the results and impact of the project.
  • The Final Report submitted to CARB must be in an accessible format aligned with WCAG Guidelines.
  • The contractor will participate in a virtual or in-person seminar to present the project findings.
  • Peer-reviewed publications should be publicly available (please budget for this expense; submission-ready publications shall be reviewed by CARB staff).
  • Additional deliverables shall be determined in consultation with CARB staff.

Minimum Expectations and Application Process and Requirements

Information on required material and process during the preproposal phase and expectations on the contract are found on the Solicitation landing page.

Timeline

This project is anticipated to be completed in 18 months from the start date. Cost shall not exceed $350,000.

Scoring Criteria

Responsiveness to the goals and objectives outlined in the pre-proposal solicitation(15 points)

The pre-proposal should demonstrate a clear understanding of the policy objectives and research needs that CARB aims to address with this project while highlighting the proposer's expertise on the subject.

The pre-proposal should consider various aspects of the need and identify or acknowledge any potential biases. It should outline, in sufficient detail, the proposed approach to meeting the requirements of the Solicitation.

The pre-proposal must detail work that aligns with the objectives outlined in the Solicitation: The Contractor will characterize consumer and contractor awareness, acceptance and satisfaction of zero-emission equipment, as well as the current market status of that equipment, to provide empirical grounding for developing building decarbonization policies and programs that help California meet its long-term climate and air quality goals.

Policy relevance/benefits to the state(10 points)

The pre-proposal must describe how the project will provide data, information, and/or products to support CARB in achieving its mission. Findings from this study will be used to inform CARB’s development and implementation of theClean Space and Water Heater Standards.

Previous work (15 points)

The pre-proposal should demonstrate that the proposers have a team with the work experience or subject matter expertise required to successfully carry out the proposed project as described in the varying tasks. Additionally, the pre-proposal should describe how the project will build upon previous relevant work that was funded by CARB, other regional, state, and federal agencies (e.g., the U.S. EPA, U.S. Department of Energy). If the project includes an equity component and/or community engagement, proposers should describe prior experience in community engagement and provide letters of support, references, or a community impact statement detailing how their previous work has benefited communities.

Five points will be reserved for project teams that meet at least one of the following criteria:

1.      The project team is multi-disciplinary.

2.      The project team includes members from various universities, non-academic institutions, or community-based organizations such as workforce development organizations.

3.      The project team includes one or more members who will contribute significantly to the project (e.g., a principal investigator, co-principal investigator, or co-investigator, contributing 25% or more of their time) who have not worked with CARB in the past 5 years.

Technical merit (25 points)

The pre-proposal should clearly explain the logic and feasibility of the project’s methodology, spell out the sequence and relationships of major tasks, and explain methods for performing the work. The pre-proposal should include a clear description and plan for how each task will be completed. 

The pre-proposal should also explain how the proposed methods are robust and how the results will be validated. Pre-proposals will be reviewed for how well they address these areas:

1.      Is the proposed measurement approach appropriate? Are the technologies being considered suitable, and will the proposed analysis yield relevant results?

2.      Does the proposed work address all the deliverables outlined in the “Deliverables” section? If not, the proposal should not be considered for funding.

3.      The review team will select only one pre-proposal for development into a full proposal. If this pre-proposal shows potential, what areas or topics should be prioritized or further explained in the full proposal?

Level and quality of effort to be provided(15 points)

The pre-proposal should describe how time and resources will be allocated and demonstrate how this allocation ensures the project’s success. Pre-proposal reviewers will evaluate whether supervision and oversight are sufficient to keep the project on schedule, and whether the distribution of time and resources is appropriate for activities such as research, evaluation, analysis, data reduction, computer simulation, report preparation, meetings, and travel.

Cost effectiveness (20 points)

Pre-proposal reviewers will evaluate if costs are appropriately allocated across different project tasks and stages and if the proposed work appears feasible within the requested budget.

Scoring Criteria Scoring Guidance

91-100 points. Exceptionally strong. The submission is technically strong, meets stated research objectives, is cost-effective, and has a high potential to be successfully completed.

81-90 points. Strong. The submission is technically sound.

71-80 points. Mixed. The submission has either strong technical merit or strong policy significance, but not both.

61-70 points. Weak. The submission is not sufficiently linked to the needs of the Board and offers limited technical merit.

60 points or below. Unacceptable. The submission is not linked to the interests or needs of the Board and lacks technical merit.

[1]CARB. 2022. 2022 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan. Available at:

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2022-08/2022_State_SIP_Strategy.pdf

[2]CEC. 2021. California Building Decarbonization Assessment. Available at: https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=239311

[3] BW Research Partnership. 2024. Workforce Challenges for Zero NOx Requirements - Implementation Working Group Research. Available at: https://www.baaqmd.gov/~/media/files/community-health/building-applianc…