California Air Resources Board

Principal Investigator/Author: Alissa Kendall

Contractor: University of California, Davis

Contract Number: 23STC027

Project Status: Active

Relevant CARB programs: Mobile Source Emissions Research, Advanced Clean Cars, Zero-Emission Vehicles, Electrification

Topic areas:  Light-Duty Vehicle Research, Carbon Neutrality, Advanced Batteries for Motor Vehicles

Research Summary:

This project uses various methods to study the likelihood of “recycled content standards” (RCS) for passenger electric vehicle batteries in California. The research will develop models for electric vehicle (EV) battery materials in the US and North America. The model relies on assumptions of how many new vehicle batteries are required and when they are removed from vehicles, which are a function of EV sales, battery size, battery chemistry, and battery lifetime.

The model will forecast battery materials out to the year 2050. A supply of battery recycled materials will be predicted using a “results-of-the-demand” model, coupled with a recycling model which will use information from collection, recycling, and recovery rates for batteries and their materials. Understanding the current state-of-the-industry for EV battery production and EV battery recycling, and expectations for these industries in the coming decades, is crucial for the data modeling effort. Thus, a significant part of this work is the evaluation of these two industries and their expected development over the modeling period.

Finally, an assessment of RCS policies in other parts of the world, and particularly Europe, will be conducted to study the design of their policies and to understand barriers and successes faced by those policies during the initial years of their implementation. The results of this work will include a modeling tool as well as a final report documenting the state-of-the-industry research, policy analysis, and, importantly, estimates of possible RCSs for California EV batteries over time. This last contribution will be assessed at different scales and will consider competition from Europe and other states if a nationwide RCS were implemented.

Keywords: carbon neutrality, transportation trends, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, light duty vehicle (LDV), zero emission vehicle (ZEV), advanced technology