California Air Resources Board

Principal Investigator/Author: Jeremy Volker

Contractor: University of California, Davis

Contract Number: 23STC028

Project Status: Completed

Relevant CARB Programs: Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Reduction & Climate Goals, Greenhouse Gas Inventory Program

Topic Areas: Sustainable Communities, Sustainable Community Strategies (SCS), Climate Change, Land Use & Transportation Research

Research Summary:

Reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) plays an essential role in achieving California’s climate, environmental, and equity goals. The 2022 Scoping Plan Update, adopted by the CARB Board in December 2022, shows that 100% zero-emission new vehicle sales by 2035 will not be enough to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. In addition to technology-based solutions, California needs to reduce VMT 25% by 2030 relative to 2019 levels, and 30% by 2045. The State is taking action to help get the needed VMT reductions, and further actions from regional and local agencies are critical.

Alternative methods to analyze induced travel have emerged in recent years. This research project aims to assess two specific approaches, as examples of how local agencies may consider developing alternatives in the coming years, and assess what implications, if any, they may have on the adequacy of current State guidance. The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (“LA Metro”) and the Rural County Task Force (“RCTF,” an advocacy organization acting on behalf of 26 rural counties in California) have each recently released critiques of approaches that the State uses to evaluate induced VMT for environmental analysis and CARB’s SCS evaluation, and have proposed alternative technical methods. The purpose of this research project is to assess those critiques, the proposed alternatives, and the potential value of providing additional technical guidance from the State in response. Researchers will use a tool developed by the National Center for Sustainable Transportation, known as the “NCST tool,” to analyze induced travel and provide an assessment of proposed alternative technical approaches for analyzing induced travel. They will also provide an assessment of whether additional State-level technical guidance on induced travel analysis, both for California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and for the SB 375 SCS development and evaluation process, would be valuable.

Keywords: greenhouse gas (GHG), climate, emissions, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), Scoping Plan, sustainable community strategies