SACRAMENTO - The California Air Resources Board, along with its federal partners – the U.S. EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration – today took a major step in the mid-term evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions and fuel economy standards for light-duty cars and trucks for model years (MY) 2022-2025 by releasing a draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR) for public comment. The existing standards require that all new vehicles improve fuel efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions over time.

The draft TAR examines a wide range of technical and cost issues relevant to the adopted 2022-2025 greenhouse gas emission standards and is the product of close collaboration and significant effort over the past four years on the part of California and the two federal agencies, including extensive laboratory testing by U.S. EPA and extensive outreach to auto manufacturers and other stakeholders. 

The TAR demonstrates that automakers are innovating at unprecedented rates and can meet the MY 2022-2025 standards with a wide range of cost-effective technologies, and that manufacturers can meet the standards at similar or even a lower cost than was anticipated in the 2012 rulemaking with substantial fuel savings to consumers.

“After almost four years of close collaboration on the draft Technical Assessment Report with our federal partners, the conclusions are clear: costs are lower for many technologies than we originally thought, market uptake is strong, and expected consumer benefits remain high,” said CARB Chair Mary D. Nichols. “The next step for us to take is equally clear: To build on this progress and continue advancing not only conventional, but more importantly zero-emission technologies to stay on the path to clean air and a stable climate.” 

During the development of the standards -- unveiled in 2012 -- all parties agreed to a mid-term evaluation process whereby the standards for MY 2022-2025 could be adjusted, depending on the pace of technology development and market uptake of low-emissions technologies. The TAR demonstrates a faster pace than expected for the development and uptake of these technologies.

“The TAR is a significant step in our understanding of automotive technology in advanced gasoline engines and transmissions for helping meet the California GHG reductions goals for our future cars and light trucks.  My technical team and our federal partners worked tirelessly to get here today,” said CARB Deputy Executive Officer Dr. Alberto Ayala. “Now CARB can take full advantage of this work by using the TAR as the technical underpinning for moving forward on the California ZEV Mandate. We now know that it is up to the combined efforts of California, our ZEV-state partners, and other supporters to advance on ZEVs precisely because of the very low level of reliance on electrification needed to meet the national standards.”

In California, the transportation sector accounts for 36 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions, making it the largest contributor to climate change and the single largest source of smog-forming pollution in the state.  As a result, reliance on conventional automobile technologies will not enable the state to meet is climate targets of a 40 percent reduction of greenhouse gases, and up to 50 percent reduction of petroleum use by 2030. 

Reliance on conventional automobile technologies will also not support California’s ability to meet its health-based air quality targets, given its unique geography and the sheer number of cars that contribute to the nation’s most extreme levels of ozone.

Among other findings in the draft TAR, for example, is the fact that battery costs are already lower today than they were originally anticipated to be 10 years from now.  This helps support accelerating efforts in California and nine other states that have adopted the ZEV mandate to accelerate commercialization of electric vehicles. It also helps move forward toward the target of 3.3 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2025 to fulfill the goal established in an MOU eight states signed two years ago. The eight signatory states of the MOU constitute about 25 percent of the new-car buying public nationally.

Release of the Draft TAR begins a 60-day public comment period. These comments, along with any new data and information, will inform the development and next steps in the Mid-Term Evaluation leading to a final determination about the standards for MY 2022-2025. 


For the U.S. EPA press release, click here.

For more information on today’s announcement, including a link to the draft TAR, click here.